What Replaces the ISS? Commercial Space Stations Explained

The International Space Station has been continuously crewed since 2000. It is also getting old. NASA and its partners plan to operate it through 2030, then steer it into a controlled re-entry over a remote stretch of ocean. The obvious question is: what comes next?

The answer is not “ISS 2.” Instead of building and owning another station, NASA plans to become a customer of privately owned commercial space stations, much like it already buys rides to orbit from companies. Here’s how the retirement plan works, who is competing to build the replacements, and what it means for research, business and the space economy.

The ISS retirement plan

The ISS is a partnership of 5 space agencies: NASA, Roscosmos, ESA, JAXA and the Canadian Space Agency. According to NASA, the US, Japan, Canada and participating ESA countries have committed to operating the station through 2030, while Russia has committed through at least 2028. All 5 agencies share responsibility for bringing it down safely.

Getting a structure the size of a football field out of orbit is not trivial. If the ISS were left to fall naturally, large pieces could survive re-entry and land unpredictably. So in June 2024, NASA selected SpaceX to build the US Deorbit Vehicle, a spacecraft that will dock with the station and push it into a controlled re-entry. The contract is worth up to $843 million, with the launch bought separately. NASA will own and operate the vehicle, and both the station and the vehicle are expected to break up during re-entry, away from populated areas.

Dates in spaceflight move, and members of Congress and industry have debated the timeline. As of October 2026, though, the official plan is still operations through 2030 followed by deorbit.

Why NASA is buying, not building

NASA has spent decades and a large share of its human spaceflight budget running the ISS. Its strategy for low Earth orbit (LEO) is to shift that role to industry so it can focus resources on deep-space exploration, including the Moon and Mars. Our guide to NASA’s Artemis program covers where that money is heading.

The model has precedent. NASA already buys cargo deliveries and crew flights to the ISS from commercial providers rather than operating its own vehicles. Commercial stations extend the same idea: companies design, build, own and operate the stations, and NASA buys time, crew slots and research capacity, alongside other customers.

Key takeaway: The ISS isn’t being replaced by one government station. It’s being replaced by a marketplace of privately owned stations, with NASA as an anchor customer rather than the owner.

Where NASA’s program stands in 2026

NASA’s approach has evolved over several years:

• 2020–2023: Early agreements. NASA awarded Axiom Space a contract in 2020 to attach commercial modules to the ISS. In 2021, it signed funded Space Act Agreements with Blue Origin (Orbital Reef), Nanoracks/Voyager (Starlab) and Northrop Grumman, which later withdrew and joined the Starlab effort. In 2023, NASA added Vast and others to an unfunded collaboration initiative.
• 2025: Strategy revised. NASA reworked its plans for the second phase, initially leaning on funded Space Act Agreements.
• July 2026: Draft solicitation. NASA released a draft request for proposals for firm-fixed-price, multi-award contracts covering development, certification and services.
• October 9, 2026: Final request for proposals. NASA plans to select 2 or more contractors for early development, then use a competitive task order for final design, testing, certification and services. Proposals are due December 8, 2026, with awards expected in spring 2027.

NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said the agency is committed to maintaining a sustained American presence in LEO after the ISS retires, adding that “the economics ultimately have to work.”

The main contenders

A few details from the companies themselves:

• Vast says Haven-1 will host crews of 4 on 2-week missions, with astronauts arriving on SpaceX’s Dragon.
• Starlab lists capacity for 4 crew continuously, or 8 during crew handovers.
• Axiom describes a sequence where its Payload Power Thermal Module berths to the ISS, then departs to join a habitat module and grow into a standalone station.

Schedules for all of these have slipped before and may slip again. Treat any launch year as a company target, not a certainty.

How a commercial space station would work

Commercial stations would run more like a business park or research campus than a government lab.

Owners design, build, insure and operate the station, and handle safety certification with NASA for any NASA crew.

Customers buy what they need:

Transportation comes from commercial vehicles such as SpaceX’s Dragon and other crew and cargo spacecraft in development.

Private astronaut missions already offer a preview. Axiom has flown several crews of paying and government-sponsored astronauts to the ISS since 2022. Our guide to how space tourism works explains the difference between short suborbital hops and orbital stays.

The risks: gaps, money and demand

The plan has real uncertainties:

• A gap in US presence. If no commercial station is ready when the ISS retires, the US could lose continuous human presence in orbit for the first time in decades. NASA says avoiding that gap is a priority.
• Business case. Stations are expensive to build and operate. Companies need enough paying customers beyond NASA to make the numbers work, and that market is still unproven.
• Funding. NASA’s budget for the program depends on Congress each year.
• Technical risk. New launch vehicles, life support and docking systems all need to work and be certified for crew.
• Competition. China’s Tiangong station has been operating since its final module launched in 2022, typically hosting 3 astronauts on 6-month stays, and offers an alternative partner for some countries.

Why this matters beyond space

Commercial stations are part of a wider commercial space economy that already includes satellite internet, launch services and Earth observation. If they succeed, they could create:

• New research markets for biotech, materials science and manufacturing in microgravity
• Supply chain demand for life support, robotics, software, communications and logistics companies
• Jobs in engineering, operations, mission control and payload integration. Our guide on getting a job in the space industry covers the roles

For businesses, the near-term opportunity is usually on the ground: supplying components, software and services to station builders, or partnering with universities on research payloads.

How to follow what happens next

1. Watch for NASA’s spring 2027 awards. They’ll show which designs NASA backs.
2. Track first launches, starting with Vast’s Haven-1 and Axiom’s first module.
3. Follow the ISS end date for any changes from NASA and Congress.
4. Look at customer announcements, such as agencies, universities and companies signing up for station time. They’re the best signal of whether the business case works.
5. Catch a launch. Our guide to watching a rocket launch explains how to see one in person or online.

Conclusion

The ISS won’t be replaced by a single station but by a set of privately owned outposts, with NASA as a major customer instead of the landlord. The retirement plan, deorbit vehicle and procurement are in motion, with NASA’s final request for proposals out and awards expected in spring 2027. Whether the US keeps people in orbit without a gap depends on how quickly those companies can launch, certify and, crucially, find enough customers to pay the bills.

Sources

• NASA: NASA Selects International Space Station US Deorbit Vehicle — deorbit vehicle contract, partner commitments through 2030 and 2028
• NASA: NASA Seeks US Industry Plans for Commercial Space Stations — October 9, 2026 final request for proposals, contract structure and timeline
• NASA: NASA Seeks Industry Input on Second Phase of Commercial Space Stations — July 2026 draft solicitation
• NASA: Commercial Space Stations — history of Axiom, Orbital Reef, Starlab and Vast agreements
• Vast: Haven-1 — launch target, crew size and mission length
• Axiom Space: Axiom Station — module sequence and ISS berthing plan